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| Visitors Out: 1206 |
| Total Visitors Out: 1206 |
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| A Petrodollar Tsunami Warning |
| 2008-02-22 15:33:04 |
Summary and conclusions
Oil prices just breached the psychological US$100 a barrel threshold. High oil prices will clearly boost the global capital flows into petrodollars: after all, high energy prices lead to transfers from oil importers to oil exporters. Investment decisions - both physical investment and financial investment - made by the owners of petrodollars will [...]...
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| DARK TIMES |
| 2008-02-22 13:59:13 |
The past week in the financial markets has been one of continued uncertainty and fear. There seems to be in every corner of the bond market an unusual wrinkle to which investors have grown cautious. The complexity and breadth of the financial products has created an aura of alchemy that harkens back to the days [...]...
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| TOP SLATE FOR 2008 |
| 2007-12-30 08:10:24 |
As the assassination of Benazir Bhutto demonstrates, turmoil and change are the constants in the world. As 2007 has proven, these themes reinforce volatility and exacerbate uncertainty in the financial markets.
As we draw the year to a close, what lies beyond will be a year that starts with dark tones that should give way to [...]...
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| Gold Could See $1,000 in 2008 |
| 2007-12-30 07:08:47 |
Gold finished the Minor degree wave 3 of Intermediate degree 1 up on May 12th at $730.40, and has decisively surpassed that level, a Bullish breakout. It came close to hitting a new all-time high, above $850.00. It got to $848 on November 7th, 2007. It closed November with an average daily price over $800 [...]...
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| Precious Points: Super Breakout! |
| 2007-12-30 06:58:29 |
“The move from a triangle e should be a powerful thrust that breaks out of the triangle. Though Friday’s action began strongly, it stalled in the afternoon leaving the wxy alternate still valid. We’ll know very soon which count is invalidated … it will take an impulsive thrust above $823 next week in the front [...]...
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| Gazing into the Crystal Ball for Investing in 2008 |
| 2007-12-30 06:37:46 |
Cash may be king for the moment but financial experts favour a plunge back into equity markets later in the year
A ‘YEAR of fear’ for portfolio investors - or a time of great opportunity? This is the question The Business Times put to a panel of financial experts as 2007 draws to a close. Their [...]...
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| Buckle Up – Turbulence Ahead (Part II) |
| 2007-12-14 08:48:18 |
Watch changes in tone in the job market
Employment-related indicators must be carefully followed too. There are signs of change in the trend of improvement to date, with the jobless rate in September-October climbing back above 4% and rising in consecutive months, and indications also that the job offers-to-applications ratio may soon drop below 1 again. [...]...
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| Buckle Up – Turbulence Ahead (Part I) |
| 2007-12-14 08:18:51 |
Decoupling notion prevails, but a sharp slowdown looks likely
Our US economics team has lowered its 2008 growth forecast all the way to 1.1% and expects a mild recession in the first half of 2008. Meanwhile, our economists covering emerging markets, including China, remain bullish. The decoupling notion - that major economies are likely to still [...]...
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| Kiwi, stay long…for now… |
| 2007-12-13 05:53:40 |
In kiwi, the bigger picture view remains unchanged as the 3 wave fall from the July high at .8110 (see A-B-C on daily chart below) continues to argue that trade from that high is a large correction, with eventual new highs after. Rebought on last week’s break above the bearish trendline from Oct (then at [...]...
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| Beijing lectures US on weak dollar |
| 2007-12-12 23:47:01 |
Beijing turned the tables on the US on Wednesday after years of criticism from Washington of its handling of the Chinese economy, warning of the serious global implications of the weak dollar, recent US interest rate cuts and the subprime crisis.
Beijing highlighted US economic problems at the opening of a twice-yearly meeting between ministers from [...]...
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| Fed Rewards Risk Seeking Activity (And CNBC Ratings) |
| 2007-12-12 13:07:11 |
My bottom line is the new liquidity facility the Fed is launching (only four auctions planned but by its own admission it may become permanent) is no elixir for ending the credit crisis. In chess parlance, it is not checkmate, just the Fed moving its queen. The move will help get funds to institutions like [...]...
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| Fed Soup…Communications Breakdown |
| 2007-12-12 05:19:19 |
Fed spin has spun out of control. In an after market message for markets, delivered to CNBC’s Steve Leesman and delivered during the Dylan Ratigan Fast Money hour (more like Coney Island sideshow), we learned that an unnamed Fed source told Leesman that the Fed is actively considering all of the tools it has available [...]...
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| Renminbi appreciation |
| 2007-12-12 05:00:11 |
Another day, another renminbi - or rather another day griping about it. This week’s “strategic economic dialogue” between China and the US predictably kicked off with US treasury secretary Hank Paulson calling for faster appreciation of the Chinese currency. While it is equally predictable that his words will again fall on deaf ears - international [...]...
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| $ index, more wide ranging…for now…. |
| 2007-12-11 11:49:02 |
There are still no signs that this period of correcting is complete and leaves open scope for at least another week or 2 of wide ranging and even higher prices first (see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below). Generally best in this type of market to trade shorter term ranges with an upward [...]...
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| Bahrain to ditch dollar peg, report claims |
| 2007-12-11 07:19:02 |
Bahrain will move towards tracking the dinar against a currency basket rather the US dollar, without changing the exchange rate, Al-Wasat newspaper quoted the finance minister as telling the advisory Shura Council. The Finance Ministry declined to comment on the report which contained the latest in a stream of contradictory remarks from policymakers that have [...]...
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| Gold, month long pattern … |
| 2007-12-11 03:02:47 |
Gold futures continue to range since the Nov 8th high at $848 and may be forming a large pennant/triangle, generally seen as a continuation pattern suggesting an eventual upside resolution. However, these patterns break down into 5 legs and argues more ranging within the pattern first (still need waves iv and v, see “ideal” scenario [...]...
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| Middle East must loosen ties to the dollar |
| 2007-12-07 00:53:51 |
Aseismic shift may soon be under way in foreign exchange policy in the Middle East. Immediate attention is on the Gulf countries, led by Saudi Arabia, with a peg to the dollar. Policymakers are now debating whether they should alter their longstanding currency policies. It is not only the dollar’s vulnerability that has prompted this; [...]...
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| Slower Growth for Longer |
| 2007-12-07 00:44:31 |
We cut our GDP growth forecast for the euro area by 0.4 pp for 2008, to 1.6%, and by 0.3 pp for 2009, to 2.2%. Business conditions in the euro area have not deteriorated as sharply as we had feared one month ago. Notwithstanding this welcome resilience, we think that the bigger picture is becoming [...]...
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| Dollar peg |
| 2007-12-03 18:52:47 |
Across the world, currency pegs are under pressure. This may sound like the wave of crises that hit emerging markets in the 1990s, but there is a critical difference: back then the pegged currencies wanted to fall, now they are straining to appreciate.This helps explain the excitement generated on foreign exchange markets by the meeting [...]...
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| Kingdom’s Money Supply Rises 21.11% to SR749.78 Billion in October |
| 2007-12-03 18:37:09 |
Saudi Arabia’s money supply growth accelerated 21.11 percent in October to a near three-year high, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA) data showed yesterday. M3, the broadest measure of money circulating in the Saudi economy, rose to SR749.78 billion ($199.9 billion) at the end of October, compared with SR619.06 billion a year earlier, the data showed. [...]...
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| Long Ridge & Lehman Brothers Among Investors Agreeing To Buy 35% of FXCM |
| 2007-12-03 17:58:46 |
Forex Capital Markets LLC (FXCM) announced that the Refco estate agreed to sell its 35% ownership interest in FXCM to Long Ridge Equity Partners (and affiliated entities) and Lehman Brothers. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
The announcement of the sale was made today by Drew Niv, CEO of Forex Capital Markets LLC [...]...
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| Dollar’s Destiny Depends on NFPs |
| 2007-12-03 17:49:50 |
This week the moment of truth may be upon us. The US calendar is chuck full of important data including ISM Manufacturing and ISM Non-Manufacturing surveys, both of which are expected to be softer than last month, though still above the 50 boom/bust line. Dollar’s destiny however, is quite likely to be determined by Friday’s [...]...
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| How High the Dollar Rebound? |
| 2007-12-03 08:37:08 |
Forecasts of a dollar rebound in 2008 are becoming more frequent as the US current account and budget deficits continue shrinking further. The dollar is unlikely to pursue single directional moves against the major currency pairs in 2008 as was the case in 2007. The extent of the dollar rebound will largely depend on the [...]...
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| Fed Discount Rate Cut As Early As Monday |
| 2007-12-03 08:03:13 |
If you missed Friday’s whispers of a Fed discount rate cut for Monday, then surely by now one is hearing it loud and clear from the market or read the Guha story in today’s FT. Why a discount rate cut now? Because Friday saw quality bank names paying up for turn money (turn of the [...]...
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| Credit Crunch Fallout…..UK Remains More Exposed than Most |
| 2007-11-29 15:44:54 |
The UK looks more like the US than any other European economy (maybe more like the US than any other economy, period). It has:
An exceptionally low household savings rate - not far from zero if you exclude savings done by companies on behalf of households when they pump more cash into corporate pension schemes.
A very [...]...
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| UAE revaluation as early as Sunday |
| 2007-11-28 06:09:28 |
With speculation mounting that Gulf currencies will be revalued after next Monday’s meeting of GCC central banks, Arabian Business has learned that the UAE central bank could make an announcement as early as Sunday.
Sources close to the central bank suggest a 3-5% revaluation of the dirham to the dollar is on the cards - bringing [...]...
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| UAE raises expectations it will drop dollar peg |
| 2007-11-28 01:44:52 |
The UAE central bank on Tuesday revamped its monetary policy tools and said it would take its first euro deposits from local banks, after raising market expectations it could swap its dollar peg for a currency basket. The central bank will replace its daily sale of fixed-rate certificates of deposit from Wednesday with an auction [...]...
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| Dollar’s last lap as only peg currency |
| 2007-11-28 01:14:32 |
It has been one of the most influential theories about exchange rates in the age of globalisation and it may be about to go up in smoke. In 2003, the economists Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber proposed what has since been known as the Bretton Woods II theory. The idea is based on [...]...
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| Nasdaq, another sharp move coming but….. |
| 2007-11-27 16:49:38 |
In the Nov 7th post on the Nasdaq 100 etf (qqqq), warned that the market was forming a topping pattern with a break below the bullish trendline from late Oct potentially triggering a further downside acceleration. The market broke below that support the next day, shorting on the intraday break (then at $53.90), and before tumbling [...]...
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| Dinar rises for fifth time in a week |
| 2007-11-27 10:22:08 |
Kuwait let the dinar rise for the fifth time in a week on Tuesday after the dollar slid to a fresh two and a half year low against the yen on expectations that credit worries would lead to more US rate cuts. The dinar will trade around a mid point of 0.27390 per dollar, compared with [...]...
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| Official Middle East Day in the US….. |
| 2007-11-27 10:10:31 |
After Dubai International Capital announced a “substantial” investment into Sony and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority announced it was investing $7.5 billion into Citigroup Inc., the US stock market has rallied, US bonds have sold off, and yen carry has been bought. The US dollar index is up .13 at 74.99, but flat from yesterday’s opening. [...]...
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| من يعيد الأمور إلى نصابها بعد التÙكك العظيم؟ |
| 2007-11-27 10:08:26 |
هل ستمر الولايات المتØدة بÙترة من الركود الاقتصادي؟ لا بد من إعطاء جوابين على هذا السؤال. الأول هو أنه لا Ø£Øد يعلم الجواب على وجه اليقين، والثاني أن هذا أمر ليس بالمهم. والسؤال الأهم من ذلك بكثير هو ما إذا كان الاقتصاØ...
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| Qatar inflation hits 14% |
| 2007-11-26 08:38:38 |
The soaring cost of living in Qatar shows no sign of letting up as inflation accelerated to almost 14% at the end of the third quarter, driven by the spiralling cost of accommodation that jumped nearly 29%. Rents and utility costs, which comprise one category in the index, surged 28.8 percent in the third quarter, [...]...
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| Dollar’s last lap as the only anchor currency |
| 2007-11-26 00:01:18 |
It has been one of the most influential theories about exchange rates in the age of globalisation and it may be about to go up in smoke.
In 2003, the economists Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber* proposed what has since been known as the Bretton Woods II theory. The idea is based on the [...]...
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| EURJPY, just a quick note… |
| 2007-10-28 04:14:34 |
Just a quick note on eur/yen (and generally applies to all of the yen crosses) as market continues higher from the Oct 22nd low at 160.60 (also 38% from the Aug low at 149.30. The “preferred” view is that the recent gains are a correction with an eventual resumption of the declines back to the [...]...
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| USDCHF, still short but ……. |
| 2007-10-26 18:16:08 |
USD/CHF is sagging back toward the recent multi-year low at 1.1600, but may be within the final downleg in the fall from the June high at 1.2470 (wave 5, see numbering on daily chart below). Note too that downside momentum is starting to slow while the market may be forming a falling wedge/bottoming pattern. This suggests [...]...
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| Market update |
| 2007-10-26 16:37:56 |
With US equities rallying, the FX market sells yen and buys all the other major currencies forcing the greenback to put in new lows. The US dollar index is down .20 at 77.05. Merrill Lynch continues to make headlines as the NYT reports that their CEO was in merger talks with Wachovia last week. Just [...]...
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| US concerns spark fresh volatility |
| 2007-10-26 11:24:35 |
Financial markets endured fresh volatility on Thursday amid concerns about the outlook for the US economy and the mortgage market while oil closed at a record high. “The focus at the moment is on the capital markets and the exposure of banks and brokers,” said Tom di Galoma, head of bond trading at Jefferies & [...]...
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