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Statistics |
| Unique Visitors: 0 |
| Total Unique Visitors: 538996 |
| Visitors Out: 1 |
| Total Visitors Out: 216 |
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| Divergence anyone? |
| 2009-11-11 17:50:00 |
Lots of divergence going on in the market, SPX is making new intra-day highs(has not made a new closing high) while breadth indicators and indicators that are not following this trend.
NYAD- the last rallies were lead by the a higher highs on NYAD
TICK- the moving averages on tick are trending down, the last rallies they moved up with the market.
NYHL- (New High's and New Lows')- Last time stocks made new highs with the market. Doesn't mean it can't happen but if the market is making new highs, so should stocks.
SPX (hourly)- MACD divergence, also notice the bullish divergence on the MACD before the rally.
SPX (daily)- MACD Divergence
IYT- Transports, double divergence on the MACD and with Dow Theory. Trannies should be making new highs with the market
$USD- Bullish Divergence, MACD not making new lows, USD is.
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| Some more charts |
| 2009-11-08 20:52:00 |
I got more comments just posting one chart on Friday then I do posting commentary. I really enjoy the charts people posted and comments. Thanks!I guess KISS(Keep. It. Simple. Stupid) works.So here are some more charts, feel free to post charts or make comments. Feel free to email me if you want me to post any charts you have. Here is an updated chart from Friday. No real break of the triangle:SPX Daily:IYR:$DJUSEN(DIG AND DUG)NYSI is nearing a support level
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| Advancers and Decliners |
| 2009-11-03 07:23:00 |
Here is a chart of NYAD (Advancers-Decliners), notice anything different about the latest "dip". Breadth is stronger to the downside this time around then the previous market pullbacks.NYAD has broken below its 3 important moving averages and it broke it's up trendline since March(trendline is not drawn on the chart). During this rally NYAD had never dropped below its 39EMA. It is now failing to get above the 39EMA and the other moving averages are crossing and looking bearish. If the 19 EMA crosses the 39EMA it can be seen as bearish. Of course breaks above these moving averages would be bullish and if NYAD starts leading price it would be even more bullish. But for now the NYAD looks bearish.Here is NYAD in 2007-2008; notice when the NYAD moving averages cross
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| .05 |
| 2009-11-02 06:31:00 |
On Friday of last week the bears finally had a nice day, beating the bulls in every sector. It was such a bad beating that Up-Volume was almost non-existent. For the second time in a month, the Up-Volume to Total Volume Ratio was .05.
The most recent time this occurred was Oct 1st, here is the post about it on that day.
So now this event has a occurred 20 times since the 1980. Here is a list of how the SPX preformed after this event.
Now we can add October 1st to this list:
SPX 1 day after=-4.24
SPX 5 days after= 36.03
SPX 10 days after= 67.11
There is a good possibility of a market bounce from here based on historical moves after .05 up-volume day.
Another good reason to support a bounce is an over sold condition on both the hourly chart and daily chart.
On the hourly the Stoch indicator is nearing oversold but one thing to take away from the chart is the MACD indicator. Notice how it did not make a new low with...
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| Hump Day |
| 2009-10-28 08:01:00 |
Don't get to bearish, while the market has moved off it's highs it is nearing oversold and could give the market a short-term bounce.The gap at 1050 is still open and the pressure on the market is still down so this gap may be filled before a move up. One thing to note is the positive divergence on RSI, the market has made lower lows on the hourly and RSI has not followed.The 1050 level is now very important for this market, it is the nearest remaining gap and the up trendline from March. A move to 1050 also completes the descending triangle.NYMO has moved below -80 and perviously this has started rallies since March.Short-term the market is showing signs of oversold, so a bounce may be coming. Internals are weaker during this decline so the chance of a strong rally to new highs is less likely then the previous rallies.
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| Never Leave Home With Out It |
| 2009-10-27 07:53:00 |
AXP- Weekly Line Chart35.20 is a key level for AXP, this level represents it's 2002 highs and it's 2008 support before it tanked. AXP has closed above this level on a daily time frame but has not closed above it on a weekly time frame. MACD histogram has been diverging from the price action and it is overbought on a weekly time frame. A break above 35.20 would be bullish but there may be a lot of resistance from that level, 36.03 is a 50% retracement from it's high's in 2007 to the 2008 lows.
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| Triangle break |
| 2009-10-26 20:39:00 |
That was a fun day! The bulls looked like it was going to party but then whammy the market drops. I mention this morning if SPX was to test the 1075 level it would break, how many technical analysis books describe a "triple bottom". It doesn't happen.
The descending triangle broke as did the 20 ema and both were broken easily.
The gap at 1050 still remains unfilled and looks like it could be filled soon with a short-term down trend now established. I am still looking for the major trend change day in the first few day in November, either the new down trend breaks or the up trend since March breaks.
There is a chance of a retracement back up to 1070-1075 or the bottom of the descending triangle, as the market is nearing oversold. The volume ratios are nearing oversold conditions as the down-volume to total is nearing its upper range and up-volume to total is below it's range.
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| New Fall Trends |
| 2009-10-26 06:18:00 |
SPX filled it's first of 3 short-term gaps on Thursday and this area became support on Friday. The market tried to break through it but was unsucessful each time, as buyers stepped in and bought at that level.
SPX has now a short-term down trend from Wed to Friday of last week. The key area will remain the support at 1073-1070 and the more the market test this level the weaker it becomes.
The 1070 level is more import on the daily chart. On the daily SPX a descending triangle has formed, although it is young and not well defined yet, forming with only a few candles. The bottom of it is the 1070 level, which is also the 20ema. A break of this descending triangle, which would make a rough measured move from 1100-1075=25pts. This would put SPX right at the second gap that has yet be filled at 1050.
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| Wait a second! |
| 2009-10-21 18:34:00 |
What was this "selling" at the close. How can they do that? You are suppose to hit the buy button at 3!
Finally some action in the market. I haven't been posting, one because I've been busy but two the market sucked. Everyday "The market is up", and some pundit is screaming "We have recovered, go out and spend, have unprotected sex, eat raw meat, earnings are doing great". Each day the market ripped up and all you had to do was pick three letters and hit buy.
The bears finally did some damage today. The first thing that should be smacking you in the face, is the beautiful double top. The bears have claimed the 1095-1100 level their house and they will defend it. The selling was quick and fast today, breaking the 20 and 50 ema. It stopped in no mans land close to support but not there, now the momentum may be down and that gap is looking like it needs to be filled.
One thing to note on this chart is the text book negative divergence. &...
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| Gaps, Divergence and SPX |
| 2009-10-18 18:23:00 |
Gaps always get filled is an old saying, but there is no time frame to when gaps get filled. Right now on SPX there are three filled gaps below the current market price. There is also a gap at 900 that has not been filled yet. Right now the market is looking neutral, sitting between support and resistance. If the market starts selling, the market could gravitate towards these gaps. But the trend is still up and the market will trend towards resistance. Here is the daily chart of SPX, you can see the first two gaps on the daily chart. The 900 gap is not highlighted. What is interesting to note is the divergences on the indicators. While price has made a new high, MACD has not. Also shown is the CMF indicator, look how there is less&nb...
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