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| Articles about Senate Watch |
| Senate Watch: A Look Into The Future, Part II | | 2008-06-21 00:43:22 | | Democrats reclaimed the Senate for the first time in 12 years in 2006 and they appear poised to expand their majority in 2008. Can the Republicans bounce back in 2010?Senate Republicans have struggled in recent years much through own mistakes coupled with a devastating political environment, due in large part to the failed presidency of George W. Bush. It's hard to imagine the national mood being any worse for Republicans in 2010 than it was for them the past two cycles. Should the Democrats seize the White House this year, the Republicans could also benefit from the midterm election bounce that favors the party out of power. The party out of the White House has gained an average of 4 seats in the non-presidential year elections dating to 1942. While the Republicans don't appear poised to gain that many seats, they are in a position to stop the bleeding in 2010.The party must defend 19 of the 34 seats up for election in 2010, but only 2 of those seats are in states won by John Kerr | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: News & Notes | | 2008-03-19 16:09:49 | | Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country. Click here for our latest Senate rankings.ArkansasFirst-term Democrat Mark Pryor (pictured) will go without a Republican challenger in his bid for re-election. The situation has to be a huge disappointment for Republicans, who have had little success at the state level despite going twice for President Bush. Republicans have won just one Senate race since the late 1800's--Tim Hutchinson in 1996, who Pryor defeated in 2002. Democrats also control the governor's office and three of the state's four House seats. Republican hopes for mounting any challenged faded completely when former Governor Mike Huckabee, fresh off his presidential bid, again confirmed that he would not jump into the race. The inability to compete in Arkansas against a first-term senator will only further GOP woes in 2008. The party has 23 seats to defend to just 12 for the Democrats, while only one Democratic incumbent appears vulnerable a | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: Rankings | | 2008-03-19 00:54:26 | | Our latest rankings paint a rosy picture for Democrats, who find only one of their incumbents on our list of the ten seats most likely to flip hands in 2008. After picking up six seats and winning a thin 51-49 majority in 2006, they appear poised to expand their holdings, but fall short of a filibuster-proof 60-seat advantage.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: As a former business executive and governor, Mark Warner (pictured) simply doesn't come across as a legislative branch kind of guy. Widely considered a potential 2008 presidential candidate before he surprisingly put such speculation to rest in October 2006, Warner does little to scuttle the notion that he has ambitions that lie beyond the Senate. A term in the Senate, which seems all but assured at this point, could help fill out the foreign policy portion of his resume for a presidential run in 2012, 2016, or beyond. At this point in 2006, however, another former governor was also prepping for an apparently easy Senate race before a | | By: Political Realm | | |
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| Senate Watch: Ad Wars | | 2008-01-17 10:08:06 | | Kentucky: Mitch McConnellMitch McConnell continues to release new campaign ads. The first, "Godfather," suggests McConnell is a champion for the environment.The second ad, "Williams," again notes McConnell's leadership position, focusing on the disposal of weapons in Kentucky.Minnesota: Al FrankenWith fellow Democrat Mike Ciresi hitting the air waves last week, Al Franken launched two new ads this week. The first, "I'm Running," features Franken's reasons for running, noting that he is serious about serving Minnesota.The second, "Mrs. Molin," is a very creative spot from the Franken campaign. The ad features Franken's 4th Grade teacher talking about his background.NRSCThe National Republican Senatorial Committee has released a new web video, "Not Buying It," that chronicles the apparent failures of the Democratically-controlled Senate.Oregon: Steve NovickDemocrat Steve Novick, challenging Jeff Merkley, among others, for the Democratic nomination, has released his first campaign ad, "To Tell The Truth." The creative spot features a number of men claiming to be Steve Novick, who may not be well known to many Oregon voters. Novick notes that he doesn't look like the typical politician, but won't act like one either. Remember that you can also find these videos and all of our others at Political Realm TV. | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: News And Notes | | 2007-12-14 14:37:27 | | ColoradoA new poll gives Democratic Congressman Mark Udall a slight edge over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer (pictured) in Colorado. Udall leads Schaffer 39%-37%, with a quarter of voters undecided. Several other polls have also shown a tight rice, suggesting this could be one of the closest and potentially nasty (judging by some of the early bombs thrown on both sides) in the country next year. In our last Senate Rankings, the Colorado race came in as the fourth most likely to flip and was rated a pure toss-up.GeorgiaMore polling confirms that Republican Saxby Chambliss (pictured) is headed towards a fairly easy re-election next year. The poll shows Chambliss breaks 50% against four potential challengers and leads each by at least 30 points. That has to be disappointing for Democrats, who are eager to give Chambliss a fight after the bitter 2002 race in which he knocked off Democrat Max Cleland. In that race, Republican ads compared Cleland, a triple amputee Vietnam | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: Rankings | | 2007-10-02 00:24:13 | | Welcome to our first rankings of the 2008 Senate contests around the country. These rankings will appear at the beginning of each month through November 2008. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. As you will notice, the landscape sets up rather nicely for Democrats looking to increase their small majority. Republicans have more seats to defend and (at least right now) fewer resources to help defend them. Democratic recruiting efforts have yielded strong results, while the jury is still out for Republicans. The bottom line is that Democrats have far more opportunities in 2008 and, while they won't pick up every seat they target, a gain of at least a few seems likely at this point.1. Virginia (Open-R): The retirement of John Warner dealt a devastating blow to Republicans. The seat that would have been easily defended had he opted for re-election has now become the Democrats' best pickup opportunity. Popular former Governor Mar | | By: Political Realm | | |
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| Senate Watch: Warner Enters Race | | 2007-09-19 16:36:54 | | As expected, Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has announced he is running for the Senate today. Warner has established a website for his campaign, where he made the video announcement. In the video, Warner talks about his accomplishments as governor, portrays himself as moderate willing to work with both sides, saying, "We brought folks together, focused on getting results, and together we accomplished some great things. Six years ago, we brought a bipartisan agenda of change to Virginia and it's time to bring that same approach to Washington and our nation." Warner suggested he will make a formal announcement this fall after state elections in November.The Virginia seat opened when Republican John Warner announced he would not seek another term two weeks ago. Republicans Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore are considered Warner's most likely opponents. The state GOP has already created a website labeling Warner as a liberal with an agenda of raising taxes. The site features a video t | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: Virginia | | 2007-09-19 16:36:54 | | When Republican Senator John Warner announced his retirement a week ago, few were surprised. The veteran lawmaker and former naval secretary turned 80 in February, had done raised only a few thousand dollars for his re-election bid, and was doing little to quiet retirement speculation. Warner's announcement did, however, open the field in what is likely to be one of the highest profile Senate races in the country.On the Democratic side, the field seems clear. Mark Warner, the popular former governor, is said to be considering a run. Term limits (no one can serve consecutive terms as governor in Virginia) forced him from office in 2006, yet Warner was seen as one of the rising stars in the Democratic Party. He ruled out a presidential run in late 2006, but remains a potential running mate for the eventual Democratic nominee. With no guarantees to get on the ticket, however, Warner seems inclined to abandon such aspirations for a Senate run. The bid wouldn't be Warner's first for | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: 1st Tier Races | | 2007-07-30 23:47:00 | | After picking up six seats in 2006, Democrats seized control of the Senate with a razor-thin majority. With Senator Joe Lieberman declaring himself an "Independent Democrat" and Senator Tim Johnson remains absent while recovering from brain surgery, Democrats have found it difficult to move their agenda forward. The 2008 Senate races have become all the more significant for Democrats, seeking to build a more workable majority, and for Republicans, hoping to take back control.In 2008, 34 seats will be up for grabs--22 Republican-held seats and 12 Democrat-held will face voters. Those numbers along with the current political environment--low approval for President Bush and increasing dissatisfaction over Iraq--create a landscape that will be challenging for Republicans. Democrats were able to defeat six Republican incumbents in 2006 and it seems likely that they could increase their majority in 2008.We have ranked the following contests as 1st tier races--meaning that we believe thes | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: Louisiana | | 2007-07-23 18:32:00 | | The Louisiana Senate race appears to be the toughest test for any Democratic incumbent seeking re-election. Louisiana politics are nothing if not unpredictable, so it remains to be seen just how vulnerable Senator Mary Landrieu may be in 2008. No clear Republican challenger has emerged, but the state has been trending to the Republicans and the demographics could be too much for Landrieu to overcome.Mary Landrieu was first elected to the Senate in 1996 in what became the tightest Senate race that year. Republicans accused Democrats of significant election fraud, leading to a long and highly partisan Senate investigation. Landrieu is part of strong Louisiana political family--her father was New Orleans mayor and her brother is currently the state's lieutenant governor. She served in the Louisiana House for much of the 1980s before becoming the state treasurer. Her narrow 1996 Senate election followed a failed attempt for the governor's office in 1995. Landrieu survived another | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: New Hampshire | | 2007-06-26 19:14:00 | | Following huge Democratic victories in 2006, New Hampshire Republican Senator John Sununu became one of the biggest targets for Democrats looking to pick up Senate seats in 2008. The incumbent will be challenged by the recent Democratic tilt of the state and his association with an unpopular president and war. The state has been a battleground on the local and national level--it went for Kerry in 2004 after giving Bush its electoral votes in 2000--and Sununu will look to avoid the fate many of his fellow Republicans realized in 2006.Sununu is the son of former George H.W. Bush chief of staff and New Hampshire Governor John H. Sununu. After being elected to the House in 1996, he defeated Republican incumbent Bob Smith in a 2002 primary to become the Senate nominee--Smith had left the Republican Party during an ill-fated 2000 presidential run. Sununu went on to narrowly defeat Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen--his victory likely aided by the pro-Republican landscape that cycle (Bush's | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: News And Notes | | 2007-06-15 06:48:00 | | • Bob Olson is the latest Democrat to join the race as a potential challenger to Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman. Olson is a bank owner, lawyer, and alternative energy activist who joins Al Franken and Mike Ciresi seeking the Democratic nomination. Coleman's seat is one of the top targets for Democrats in 2008. • Coleman may find his path to the nomination not as easy as once thought. Retired Lt. Colonel Joe Repya, an advisor to Coleman's 2002 Senate campaign, is considering a challenge. Repya recently lost his race to become the chair of the Republican Party in Minnesota.• Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning is moving forward, as expected, with his Senate bid. Incumbent Republican Chuck Hagel has yet to announce his future plans, which include a possible presidential run, Senate re-election, or retirement. Bruning has been increasingly critical of his fellow Republican's outspoken nature regarding Iraq.• New Hampshire Senate hopeful Steve Marchand confirmed last week | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: How Blue Is Colorado? | | 2007-06-11 21:23:00 | | Following the January announcement that incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard would not seek re-election in 2008, the battle for his Colorado Senate seat is set to become perhaps the most competitive in the country. Allard is currently the only 2008 Senate incumbent to have announced retirement, providing Democrats with their best opportunity to pick up a seat. The race will likely test the strength of the recently resurgent Democratic Party in Colorado against the Republican history of the state.Both parties appear to have their nominees--Mark Udall for the Democrats and Bob Schaffer for the Republicans. Udall currently represents Colorado's liberal 2nd District, consisting of Boulder and some Denver suburbs, and was easily re-elected in 2006, with nearly 70% of the vote. He is part of a powerful political family that includes his father, former presidential candidate and Arizona Congressman Mo Udall, as well as cousins Tom Udall, a Democratic representative from New Mexico, and | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: Minnesota | | 2007-05-30 06:55:00 | | The challenges for Norm Coleman's re-election effort are similar to those facing Susan Collins in Maine. Coleman is a Republican in a Democratic state with a strong liberal history--Minnesota has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976 (the longest active blue streak). He is also saddled with an unpopular outgoing president and the situation in Iraq, both of which Coleman has attempted to distance himself from. Minnesota DFLers (the state's version of the Democratic Party) will also make a strong push to reclaim the seat because it was once held by liberal icon Paul Wellstone.Coleman was elected the mayor of St. Paul as a Democrat, but switched to Republican Party in 1996. His bid for governor failed in 1998, with the surprising victory of former wrestler and actor Jesse Ventura. Coleman's 2002 Senate race against Wellstone grew very contentious before Wellstone's tragic death in a plane crash weeks before the election. Coleman had been running neck and neck with | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: Maine | | 2007-05-14 18:09:00 | | The field appears set for the 2008 Senate race in Maine that is likely to be one of the closer races in the country and a prime Democratic pickup opportunity. Congressman Tom Allen, the presumptive Democratic nominee, announced his candidacy on his campaign website last week. Susan Collins has already announced her intentions to seek a third term after previously stating that she would serve only two terms. Though Republicans currently hold both of the state's Senate seats, the Democrats control the two House districts, the governor's office, and the state legislature.As a Republican senator in a reliably blue state, Susan Collins is an obvious target for Democrats this cycle. After successfully ousting a number of Republican incumbents in swing or Democratic-leaning districts in 2006, the Democrats are looking to continue that momentum in 2008. Because the national political landscape still tilts in favor of the Democrats, Collins' re-election is far from certain. Allen, a six-term | | By: Political Realm | | |
| | Senate Watch: Is Chuck Hagel Retiring? | | 2007-04-19 17:57:00 | | The Hotline is reporting that Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel should prepare for a primary challenge, should he opt to run for re-election. Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, who had previously stated that he intended to run for the seat if Hagel retired or ran for president, now says he is in the race regardless of Hagel's decision.Bruning cites Hagel's recent vote in support of a troop withdrawal deadline and comments about the possible impeachment of President Bush as evidence that he is moving away from the values of Nebraska Republicans. "Given Sen. Hagel’s vote and public comments, I have to seriously consider running for this seat regardless of what Sen. Hagel does," Bruning stated.Hagel disappointed supporters and politicos with a bizarre announcement that he would not discuss his future plans until later in the year. Most had believed that Hagel would use the press conference to announce his bid for the presidency. It has since been revealed that Hagel said when he first | | By: Political Realm | | |
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